The curve at the corner of the panel is the way to go. A square corner will end up like a knot in wood.
Don't try to contour the patch at the wheel lip like in photo #2. Cutting and then welding at a diagonal across that formed edge will cause a nightmare. It will also accentuate any deviations in contour that the patch panel has compared to what it should be.
Judging from what is already rusted all the way through in the photos, I think your patch will need to be at least as big as the area that's already had the paint removed.