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Thread: Where'd the money go?

  1. #11
    Registered Member scorpion1110's Avatar
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    Ok. So a couple of things. I manage retirement plans and associated trust assets. My trust size was $1.2B in 2012, changed jobs and have about $600M under my stewardship. I have been managing retirement plans since 1987, spent time in investment banking and then settled into corporate finance jobs.

    My credentials aren't bad, I have spoken at pension conferences, and I have been actively managing my own portfolios for 20 years and......... I have never seen market behavior like this. There is nowhere to be other than cash. Pretty simple, and to get there it requires likely turning an unrealized loss into a realized loss. I believe the current situation defies market logic because its a created scenario. I still believe that the deep pockets guys are pushing prices around both through misinformation and previously made trades. The are leveraging social media effectively by tweeting doom and gloom scenarios, and triggering a sell low scenario. And they are buying folks, a little at a time. Remember not every equity is down. I have a stock that's up 37% this year.

    Because the market is behaving in an illogical manner, I am staying put. My choice and I wouldn't advise anyone to to that or any thing.

    CN, I hedge my losses through careful diversification and with my large positions I will set a stop-loss trigger at -5%. Go to cash and evaluate. Its not perfect because you can get burned on a volatile swing day. I stay away from options. If I want to gamble I go to Atlantic City.

    Personally, I place household assets in a tax-free municipal fund that provides a small amount of capital appreciation with an annual 6% div and the tax free aspect pushes the return higher. I refuse to complain about a 7% return with low volatility on household assets. Its not tech, just predictably safe.

    Otherwise I invest everything else in tax deferred IRA and 401k accounts. This allows me to respond quickly to the market and not realize a gain/loss event when I trade. The 401ks utilize ROTH so that I pay current tax rates which are temporarily low for the next ten years. A wise man once told me pay your taxes when you know the rates, dont trust politicians when it comes to future tax rates.

    If you are looking for a personal trading platform, Fidelity is the best- hands down. I have managed assets through Vanguard, StateStreet, TRP and Fidelity. Fidelity has the best tools and works great for institutional and retail accounts.

    And for those in retirement plans who want to get to their assets; check your SPD or contact your benefits office to determine if your plan offers Age 59 1/2 In-service withdrawals. If so, you can roll assets over to an IRA and not incur a taxable event. This lets you handle the investment management.

    Honestly I am totally perplexed at the markets right now. Though I will tell you if Mr. Prez stops the erratic Tweetfest, leaves the Chinese alone, stops ticking off the europeans and generally settles down, the markets will settle. Because Markets LOVE predictable boring behavior.

    Market Beaten Scorp
    Last edited by scorpion1110; 12-18-2018 at 05:14 PM.
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  2. #12
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    Pretty well stated, scorpion. At my age I'll take appreciation when I can get it (and I have been since the election until recently) but am happy to preserve what's there when things are down or volatile.

    Your point about cash is well taken. There's no appreciation in cash, hasn't been for 10 years, but it's only depreciating by the inflation rate which is fairly low.

    I do disagree with your comment about manipulation and social media. Do you really think the mutual fund managers, investment bankers, and hedge fund operators get manipulated this way? Which is probably 98-99% of daily trading.

  3. #13
    Registered Member scorpion1110's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rick_L View Post
    Pretty well stated, scorpion. At my age I'll take appreciation when I can get it (and I have been since the election until recently) but am happy to preserve what's there when things are down or volatile.

    Your point about cash is well taken. There's no appreciation in cash, hasn't been for 10 years, but it's only depreciating by the inflation rate which is fairly low.

    I do disagree with your comment about manipulation and social media. Do you really think the mutual fund managers, investment bankers, and hedge fund operators get manipulated this way? Which is probably 98-99% of daily trading.
    Rick I really dont know.

    When all the normal explanations fail you look at the alternative. Do I think that obscure analysts, tweet, get picked up by Marketwatch, get streamed on your iPhone stock app, and people exercise a trade based on the 'info"? Unfortunately, more than you might think. Does anyone really know who Harold Motley from Capital Analytics is? He must be important because Brenda Johnson from Yahoo Finance just shared his tweet. And when he says Tesla is primed for a breakout based on his "double trigger Market Curve forecast", do you think anyone is buying? Its the Internet where everything is true.

    Oh and 20 minutes later the post disappears because news is now real time, not subject to an editor and easily overwritten. Harold was just another talking head relegated to the dark corners of cyberspace.

    So in the absence of a logical explanation I have become Mel Gibson from Conspiracy Theory and blame the faceless money managers in the trench coats and slouch hats

    Kidding aside, I have never seen the markets acting like this. Perhaps its just the Prez, because thats the other new element added to the mix.

    Scorp
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  4. #14
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    Does anyone really know who Harold Motley from Capital Analytics is? He must be important because Brenda Johnson from Yahoo Finance just shared his tweet.
    Stuff like that has been out there forever. Even before the internet, when you got your business news from the newspaper or business publications like the Wall Street Journal, which is no longer a business journal as its primary content. The only thing the internet has done is make this stuff more instantaneous, both appearance and disappearance as well as frequency of these things. We're just bombarded.

    Trump is probably a factor here, he has everyone on edge with the trade stuff and European interaction.

  5. #15
    Registered Member chevynut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by scorpion1110 View Post
    I still believe that the deep pockets guys are pushing prices around both through misinformation and previously made trades. The are leveraging social media effectively by tweeting doom and gloom scenarios, and triggering a sell low scenario. And they are buying folks, a little at a time.
    I agree. I have one particular stock that is bouncing off of 52-week lows but the funds are buying it up. It's also heavily shorted so any good news could cause a big squeeze.

    Remember not every equity is down. I have a stock that's up 37% this year.
    It's hard to find a stock that's still up for the year but I have one that's still up 77% YTD after this recent drop, and was up 197% in September (yes, almost 3X from January 1 ) It happens to be my largest holding that I've been accumulating for 3 years now and it's still up ~10X since I started buying it.

    Because the market is behaving in an illogical manner, I am staying put. My choice and I wouldn't advise anyone to to that or any thing.
    Same here. I have stock in several companies that are financially healthy and doing well but massive short-selling seems to be driving them down. I also believe that since the interest rate scare and trade war dropped the market, lots of stocks got hit and now there's heavy tax loss selling which is driving them further down. I can hardly wait for December to be over so at least the tax loss selling stops.

    I stay away from options. If I want to gamble I go to Atlantic City
    I dabble in options a little and have done really well at times, but usually my timing is off. I can guess which way the stock is going to go but not WHEN. The problem with options is the time factor. I currently have a few large option positions that expire in January, July, and January 2020. I don't put a lot of money in them, but they can pay off big if you call it right. I don't gamble when I go to Vegas, but I do some "gambling" in the stock market. I also buy speculative penny stocks now and then with a small portion of my portfolio, and found that the trick is to sell on a run before the company dies. LOL!

    Honestly I am totally perplexed at the markets right now. Though I will tell you if Mr. Prez stops the erratic Tweetfest, leaves the Chinese alone, stops ticking off the europeans and generally settles down, the markets will settle. Because Markets LOVE predictable boring behavior.
    Agreed. Sometimes I think Trump's Twitter account needs to be suspended.
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  6. #16
    Registered Member BamaNomad's Avatar
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    Several times (in my career) the stock market has shown that it can FALL even faster than it rises...

  7. #17
    Registered Member scorpion1110's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BamaNomad View Post
    Several times (in my career) the stock market has shown that it can FALL even faster than it rises...
    Yep and works like a reputation; takes years to build it and minutes to destroy it.
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  8. #18
    Registered Member BamaNomad's Avatar
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    ChevyNut recently wrote (in part)...

    " ...I withdraw from my IRA whenever I need extra cash, like buying a tiny home for my wife in south Texas recently. "

    I just heard on the OAN news that a lady who built her own 'tiny home' in the St Louis area ... had it stolen recently!...

    First stolen cars.. and now 'stolen homes'.... Do you have a security device on your wife's tiny home?



  9. #19
    Registered Member chevynut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BamaNomad View Post
    I just heard on the OAN news that a lady who built her own 'tiny home' in the St Louis area ... had it stolen recently!...First stolen cars.. and now 'stolen homes'.... Do you have a security device on your wife's tiny home?
    Wow, that's unbelievable. There's crooks everywhere. We have it insured as an RV so I think it would cover theft. I think someone might notice if anyone tries to run off with it. It's 15x41 including the porch so it takes special permits to move it. It's a "park model RV" (399 SF) and is in an RV park in Rockport with lots of other people's RVs. My in-laws live there and have been there for 4-5 years now, as does my brother in law and his wife. My wife wanted a place to stay close to them when she wants to visit, since her mom is getting older and having some health issues. We plan to rent it out when we're not using it. It's a brand new 2018 home that was bought by a guy in Salado who moved it onto a property, then was told he couldn't have it there so he had to sell it before he even got to move in. We got it for a pretty good discount and had it moved. My wife has seen it and stayed in it for a few days after it was moved, but I haven't seen it yet except for pics. We're going down after Christmas to install skirting and get some more furniture in it. We have it rented for January through March already and the people called us asking to rent it without us even advertising it.
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  10. #20
    Registered Member WagonCrazy's Avatar
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    We have it rented for January through March already and the people called us asking to rent it without us even advertising it.
    This is a good money strategy to me:
    Buy in cost is low.
    Potential offset to cost by this being rentable.
    Affords you and your wife a place to be whenever you want to go to Texas.
    Insurable (think high winds that pass thru TX every spring)
    Too big to steal without a hellova lot of work.

    Back to the stock market...
    After reading all your comments guys, the major decision (for me) is to make the mental committment if I really want to pull the money and manage it myself.
    Now is definately not the time to cash out of the funds (just to move them...or I solidify the losses of the last few months). Will just let that money ride.
    But now IS a great time to buy in, with new money, at a lower starting point...

    Now where did I put that money tree I keep referring to? Need to pluck it a bit.
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