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Thread: Where'd the money go?

  1. #1
    Registered Member WagonCrazy's Avatar
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    Where'd the money go?

    Any of you guys watching whats happening to your stock investment balances lately? Since early October, this market's been slip-sliding away.
    did any of you pull out before you lost all your gains for 2018?
    1957 Nomad- LS1/T56 on C4 chassis
    1959 Fleetside Apache 1/2 ton, shortbed, big window, 327ci.

  2. #2
    Registered Member chevynut's Avatar
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    Paul, I made a shitload of money up to around mid September, then I lost a shitload since then. I just went negative for the year today like the market did, but my percentage gains earlier were much higher than market gains. Since I retired I've made much more than if I worked, even counting what I've spent in those 6 years. But in 30+ years of investing myself I have yet to learn how to protect my gains . I need to figure that out.....I've tried trailing stops only to have them execute and the stock continue upward. I did some selling in the past month or two and made nice profits, but I bought other depressed stocks that have dropped even more. I track and trade around 30 stocks daily, mostly tech. The two biggest things that have taken the market down are interest rates and the trade war with China. Rates have been inching up and Trump keeps increasing tariffs on Chinese products in an effort to get them to lower or eliminate their tariffs on US goods. I think Trump will win, but it might take a while. There's talk that the Fed may not increase rates in December as they had planned, and that should be good for the market. I think 2019 is going to be a better year for the market and I believe the fears are over-blown right now.
    Last edited by chevynut; 12-17-2018 at 06:38 PM.
    56 Nomad, Ramjet 502, Viper 6-speed T56, C4 Corvette front and rear suspension

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  3. #3
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    You don't need to be in tech right now, you need to be in solid time honored companies that pay dividends. You should avoid anything that's averse to the tariff stuff for the most part, but there will be some bargains there. The trade/tariff deal may take a while to work out even if you believe in Trump's strategy there which I do, look for much of it to take a year or more.

    I think whatever the Fed does is only a short term deal unless they really screw it up. In other words the interest rate hike scheduled for this week will affect the market, probably was a factor today, will swing the other way later in the week if they delay. They do need to raise rates in a sensible way over time, just maybe not this week.

    My other thought is that the US economy is in pretty good shape for the near term, it's just the outside influences that has the market spooked. I also think the market is influenced negatively about Brexit and the French situation.
    Last edited by Rick_L; 12-17-2018 at 07:47 PM.

  4. #4
    Registered Member chevynut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rick_L View Post
    You don't need to be in tech right now, you need to be in solid time honored companies that pay dividends.
    Dividend paying stocks don't do much, and they're booooring, and at this point tech is where most of my money is. It's also what I know since I worked in tech and I've traded tech stocks for decades. I think we'll see another big tech run in a few weeks because tech is what drives a huge part of the economy. The CES is coming in January and it should spark some excitement along with new products showing up next year. Dividends mean nothing to me when they pay 1-2% a year.....I make that or more in a day or two. I have a couple of REITS that pay 7-11% in dividends though. I had a bunch of my money with an investment advisor for 4 years and he lagged the market because he invested in bonds, dividend stocks, and conservative funds/ETFs. I missed out on a lot of gains because of his overly conservative approach so I pulled all my funds out and now I manage it all myself. I don't day-trade but I buy when I believe something is oversold, and sell when I think it's gone up too much or hit my target. Unfortunately, sometimes I hold too long, or buy too soon. But overall I think I've done very well.


    The trade/tariff deal may take a while to work out even if you believe in Trump's strategy there which I do, look for much of it to take a year or more.
    I think it will be worked out a lot quicker than a year. Trump completely re-did NAFTA with Mexico, and then with Canada and it was resolved quickly to our benefit. . I think that's a done deal now. China needs the US worse than we need them, and I think they will give in to Trump's demands. Their tariffs are way too high and I think they know it. Trump would prefer NO tariffs on either side....free, fair trade.

    My other thought is that the US economy is in pretty good shape for the near term, it's just the outside influences that has the market spooked. I also think the market is influenced negatively about Brexit and the French situation.
    France is going to bury themselves in debt like Greece did....both are socialistic countries. Macron is already promising bonuses and pay hikes, with money they don't have. What do they really contribute to the world? Not much but olive oil and wine. LOL! I don't worry too much about Brexit and I don't see why it even has an impact on our stock markets. I agree with you that the economy is in pretty good shape, the market is still up significantly from 2016, and after tax-loss selling is done things will stabilize and begin their climb again. At least that's what I'm betting on.
    56 Nomad, Ramjet 502, Viper 6-speed T56, C4 Corvette front and rear suspension

    You can see my 56 Nomad build here http://www.picturetrail.com/chevynut

    For affordable C4 Corvette Suspension conversions for your car, visit http://www.classicedgedesigns.com

    Other vehicles:

    56 Chevy 2-door BelAir sedan
    56 Chevy 210 4-door sedan
    57 Chevy 210 4-door sedan
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  5. #5
    Registered Member scorpion1110's Avatar
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    Ok I don't give advice because I dont have the certifications.

    However I am a Finance MBA and with that said. Everything is getting drilled and there are no safe havens. I did a portfolio realignment earlier in the year to provide some protection and actually increased my cash position to about 30%. Did not matter. This market is going down because I believe the larger brokerage houses want to see the decline. Why? Because when people are panic selling they are incrementally buying. Incremental to dollar cost average the buy. I have spoken to several brokers (I manage retirement trusts) and they are buying slowly. The market was stretched and they weren't making any money, so make some large sales, drop some negative market forecasts and let the panicky wanna-be investors and stop-loss triggers take over. Granted there are losses to the larger houses, but it would be interesting to see there assets realignment in advance of the decline. Just my opinion but the current environment feels wrong.

    There wasn't a really good reason for the drop. Did companies suddenly abandon their fundamentals? no. Unemployment is low. like real low, like lowest since 1969 low. inflation not really an issue. So the Fed ratchets up interest rates and the market goes south? Doesn't foot. And with no safe havens? hmmmm.

    Are there dividend paying stocks that are at levels of greater than 1-2%? Absolutely, go looking and you will find them. There are tax free municipal trusts also that average about 6% a year.

    As for tech. Some said the same thing about healthcare a few years ago. Nowhere to go but up due to the combination of drugs development and associated medical technology. And they are in the tank. So is tech a good bet? No better than anything else right now and for the future? I had all the Fangs and dont have them now. Look for solid companies, with cash and low P/Es.

    So what am I doing? Holding. Has the market bottomed? Hard to say. I want to say yes but the daily drops want to say otherwise.

    Best answer? Go work on your tri-five and get ready for Christmas.

    Scorp
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  6. #6
    Registered Member chevynut's Avatar
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    Chinese President Xi was widely expected to say something about US/China trade relations yesterday but unfortunately he avoided the subject in his speech. I think that would have given the market a catalyst to rebound. Now all eyes are on the Fed, but imo it's moot. Everyone knows the Fed is planning to raise rates 1/4 point so I don't understand the drama. It's already baked into the market.

    I know people who are satisfied with dividend stocks making a few percent, but I'm not. I'm still in the growth mindset even in retirement. I am taking Social Security right now and since I get near the maximum payout, it pays most of my bills. My part-time business provides some spending money, and I withdraw from my IRA whenever I need extra cash, like buying a tiny home for my wife in south Texas recently. As of September I was up over 25% for the year and now I'm about at a breakeven.....that's how fast things can move. They can move up just as fast and that 25% was actually made in 4-5 months last summer. One of my accounts is up almost 6% from yesterday in the first hour of trading today, but it could end negative by the end of the day .

    I know too many people who sold out at the bottom in 2008/09 trying to save what they had left in the market. Same thing happened in 2000/01. I told them they should be buying, not selling at that point. Too many people panic and sell, only to miss the rebound. However, I've also held too long and lost more than I should have. It's a tough decision.

    Some analysts are saying we're in a bear market, others are saying the market will jump 10-15% in the next 2 weeks. The doomsayers looking for the economy and markets to crash in 2019 are the same guys who always say the sky is falling. Nobody really knows. Interest rates are still historically quite low. Oil prices are down. With a China trade deal made the market can forget about the trade war. I've been buying on weakness this week, and I'm holding for now.

    Scorp, what do you recommend to hedge your gains? I've been told to buy puts against my holdings, but that just costs money you never get back if the market doesn't drop. And long-term puts cost a lot more than short-term ones. I successfully used trailing stop loss orders on 2-3 stocks this fall, to take my gains and prevented a big loss. I sold one stock at $95 in September (while elk hunting ) that's now sitting at $55. Another one was sold at $25 and it's now $19. So it can work, but I've also had the mm's "steal" my shares on a dip.
    56 Nomad, Ramjet 502, Viper 6-speed T56, C4 Corvette front and rear suspension

    You can see my 56 Nomad build here http://www.picturetrail.com/chevynut

    For affordable C4 Corvette Suspension conversions for your car, visit http://www.classicedgedesigns.com

    Other vehicles:

    56 Chevy 2-door BelAir sedan
    56 Chevy 210 4-door sedan
    57 Chevy 210 4-door sedan
    1961 Willys CJ3B Jeep
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    2003 Chevy Silverado 2500 HD Duramax

  7. #7
    Registered Member BamaNomad's Avatar
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    I'm with Scorpion... It's difficult to impossible to 'guess' what the market is going to do on a hourly/daily/even weekly basis. And if you are 'succeeding', it might be temporary, AND it requires too much of our *limited time*, when you could be doing something much more enjoyable.

    I don't even worry about it anymore... Let it all ride and settle for my 'small percentage gains' over the long haul, and don't sweat the temporary swings up and down.. I don't check the market at all.. only look at my monthly reports to see what it's doing (and I don't think I've even reviewed the ones I received a couple of weeks ago!).

  8. #8
    Registered Member chevynut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BamaNomad View Post
    And if you are 'succeeding', it might be temporary, AND it requires too much of our *limited time*, when you could be doing something much more enjoyable.
    I actually enjoy it and spend a couple hours each day watching the market and reading news on the companies I invest in (mostly the latter). But I agree and have told people that if you don't want to keep tabs on what's going on with the companies you're invested in, you should stick to mutual funds. In the 30+ years I've been investing on my own, I've done better than my "financial advisor" did for the 4 years I paid him thousands of bucks to manage my money. Especially since I retired and have more time to pay attention to my investments.
    56 Nomad, Ramjet 502, Viper 6-speed T56, C4 Corvette front and rear suspension

    You can see my 56 Nomad build here http://www.picturetrail.com/chevynut

    For affordable C4 Corvette Suspension conversions for your car, visit http://www.classicedgedesigns.com

    Other vehicles:

    56 Chevy 2-door BelAir sedan
    56 Chevy 210 4-door sedan
    57 Chevy 210 4-door sedan
    1961 Willys CJ3B Jeep
    2001 Porsche Boxster S
    2003 Chevy Silverado 2500 HD Duramax

  9. #9
    Registered Member WagonCrazy's Avatar
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    In the 30+ years I've been investing on my own, I've done better than my "financial advisor" did for the 4 years I paid him thousands of bucks to manage my money. Especially since I retired and have more time to pay attention to my investments.
    ...so I pulled all my funds out and now I manage it all myself.
    Can you do this because you have passed a certain age requirement? (ie. your money is no longer out of your direct reach as a tax deferred 401k, IRA, etc)
    If so, what is that age requirement?

    My money's all in 401ks, IRA's,etc. All of it tax deferred, so I have to use someone to manage it at this point (57 years old). But those guys all make thousands each year on my money, and it seems that maybe I could be doing better on my own at some point. (with the time each day to manage it).
    1957 Nomad- LS1/T56 on C4 chassis
    1959 Fleetside Apache 1/2 ton, shortbed, big window, 327ci.

  10. #10
    Registered Member chevynut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WagonCrazy View Post
    Can you do this because you have passed a certain age requirement? (ie. your money is no longer out of your direct reach as a tax deferred 401k, IRA, etc)
    If so, what is that age requirement?
    Paul, I always contributed the max to my 401K while I worked and we were allowed to move it among several funds so I actively traded it....I made 65% one quarter trading between our stock fund and a money market fund. Later they put trading restrictions on us. In addition, HP had a "retirement fund" for some of us "older" employees that was company funded and was paid out to me when I retired, as a lump sum, along with my tax-free early retirement severance. After I retired I moved my 401K into an IRA along with the HP retirement fund and severance funds so now I manage two IRA accounts. Also, I have two non-qualifying stock trading accounts that are taxed when I trade. When I trade in my IRAs I don't have to track gains or losses and I don't get taxed until I withdraw funds, which is at regular tax rates. If you have an IRA you should be able to do the same, but you can't withdraw funds without a penalty until you're 59 1/2. I retired at 59 so I had to figure out how to pay my bills for 6 months but it wasn't that hard with my business income and a HELOC I set up as a "buffer" before I retired in case I needed it.

    My money's all in 401ks, IRA's,etc. All of it tax deferred, so I have to use someone to manage it at this point (
    You don't have to have anyone manage your IRAs, but your 401K is largely out of your control. My IRAs are at Etrade and TD Ameritrade and I trade freely in them, just like any other stock account. Just open an account at a discount brokerage and transfer the funds....it's easy.
    56 Nomad, Ramjet 502, Viper 6-speed T56, C4 Corvette front and rear suspension

    You can see my 56 Nomad build here http://www.picturetrail.com/chevynut

    For affordable C4 Corvette Suspension conversions for your car, visit http://www.classicedgedesigns.com

    Other vehicles:

    56 Chevy 2-door BelAir sedan
    56 Chevy 210 4-door sedan
    57 Chevy 210 4-door sedan
    1961 Willys CJ3B Jeep
    2001 Porsche Boxster S
    2003 Chevy Silverado 2500 HD Duramax

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